With midterm elections over the horizon, Democrats – who just weeks ago were highly confident that they would easily take back control of the House – have become paranoid that they’ll suffer a repeat of 2016 and fail to gain the 23 seats needed for victory.
“Election Day will either prove to me I have PTSD or show I’ve been living déjà vu, I just don’t know which yet” said veteran Democratic operative Jesse Ferguson, deputy press secretary for Hillary Clinton’s campaign.
Ferguson is one of many Democrats who felt the string of unexpected defeat in 2016 and are now closely — and nervously — watching the current election near its end, wondering if history will repeat itself. This year, instead of trying to win the presidency, Democrats have placed an onus on trying to gain 23 House seats and win a majority. –McClatchy
Pollster Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight says Democrats have an 80% chance of winning control of the House, and 20% of taking the Senate. Then again, he was flat wrong during the 2016 election after being championed by the left for his predictive capabilities.
GOP pollster John McLaughlin, meanwhile, said Sunday that Republicans may be able to maintain control over the House.
Speaking on AM 970’s “The Answer” in New York, McLaughlin told host John Catsimatidis that the key to a Republican victory next month is retaining enthusiasm felt by GOP-leaning voters following the successful confirmation of President Trump‘s second Supreme Court nomination, Brett Kavanaugh.
“You’re seeing Republicans in the areas where Trump did well go up in the polls because the Trump voters are reengaged,” McLaughlin said.
“If, over the next three weeks, they keep those Trump voters engaged, [then] we have a shot at holding the House, but we’ll definitely pick up some U.S. Senate seats,” the pollster continued. –The Hill
“The Republicans, they need to play offense,” McLaughlin said, who says the GOP should target House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).
“The person who is the most unpopular national figure is Nancy Pelosi. And the Democrats are hiding her… The president needs to take her on and expose her because she stands for higher taxes, open borders, fewer jobs. She stands for basically a weaker America.”
GOP momentum may be high after the Kavanaugh hearings, however they will likely need to raise more last-minute money, according to RealClearPolitics.
With the election less than 24 days away, Republicans are seeing momentum in polls after the Kavanaugh hearings and a new path to holding their majority in the House. To do this, they need to stop Democrats from reaching a net pickup of 23 seats, which will likely require raising more last-minute money.
In a memo to donors earlier this week, the Congressional Leadership Fund, House Speaker Paul Ryan’s super PAC, stated that “while Republicans still face historic headwinds, the last two weeks have brought improvement in the political environment and the best polling since the beginning of the summer. The enthusiasm gap has closed across the country, Republicans improved their standing with independent voters and President Trump’s approval rating improved across the board.” –RealClearPolitics
Ryan’s memo highlights 20 races that are within four points that may determine the fate of the House, however “the biggest problem for Republicans,” according to RCP, “is that they are being massively outspent by Democratic candidates and the national committees.”
The Executive Director of Ryan’s PAC, Cory Bliss, says “Democratic candidates are outspending Republican candidates in key races by $50 million and the GOP is now facing a green wave, not a blue wave.”